1.7 Demographic Profile
The North Central catchment represents a complex variety of urban and spatial characteristics - including a major provincial city, several significant towns, smaller towns and relatively remote rural farming communities. Its six individual local government areas (LGA's) are also characterised by significant local diversity.
North Central catchment - Local Government Areas
graphic
By any standard, the North Central catchment displays a complex array of spatial, population/ settlement, demographic and socio-economic factors - as summarised in the December 2007 strategic assessment discussion paper for this project.
Compared to local government systems in other Australian states, the six local government units in the catchment are quite large and diverse. Prior to Victorian local government restructuring in 1994/95 these areas were represented by 27 former local authorities each reflecting distinctive local “communities of interest”.
th) and Mount Alexander (10th) - as well as the seventh least disadvantaged (Macedon Ranges) LGA's.
Settlement patterns also vary widely. 97,000 (45%) of the catchment's estimated 215,000 residents reside in Greater Bendigo. Of the 18 catchment towns with populations greater than 1,000 persons, eight are located within Macedon Ranges Shire. At the other extreme Loddon Shire has no towns with populations in excess of 800 persons.
The scope and scale of the catchment's geographic area also poses significant service challenges - encompassing both Melbourne satellite commuter communities and others adjoining the New South Wales border. For example, Family Services based in Echuca are experiencing growing service demands from its NSW neighbour town of Moama (which has 4,600 residents and high levels of socioeconomic disadvantage).
Conversely, in 1996 an estimated 5,600 Macedon Shire residents commuted daily to Melbourne for work - and the current figure would be significantly higher.
North Central: area, population growth, relative disadvantage
DSE Projections (2004)  and ABS IRSED Index
LGA
Area (Sq km)
Density
(per km2)
Pop 2006
(Est.)
Pop 2021
(Est.)
Pop Change (%)
IRSED Index
Rank (Vic)
Campaspe (S)
4,519
8.0
37,901
42,230
11.4
1002.1
33
Central Goldfields (S)
1,534
8.5
13,153
13,287
1.0
947.5
4
Greater Bendigo (C)
2,999
30.2
96,997
116,182
19.8
990.4
20
Loddon (S)
6,694
1.3
8,444
8,018
-5.0
996.4
30
Macedon Ranges (S)
1,747
21.6
41,022
51,653
25.9
1,061.8
71
Mount Alexander (S)
1,529
11.2
17,576
18,792
6.9
978.0
10
Total
19,022
11.3
215,093
250,162
16.3
 
 
 
 
Victoria
219,366
6.1
1,395,947
1,574,404
12.8
 
 
 
 
The preceding table outlines some broad area, demographic and socio-economic comparisons between the six LGA's.  The data highlights significant variations between LGA's in area, population density, growth factors and levels of socio- economic disadvantage - highlighting the need for differential approaches to local service planning and delivery, for example:
  • Greater Bendigo (C) and Macedon Ranges (S) have relatively high population densities - respectively 30.2 and 21.6 persons per sq. km. Conversely, Loddon (S) is very sparsely populated with only 1.3 persons per sq. km.
  • Greater Bendigo (C) with almost 97,000 people has the largest population - representing 45.1% of the catchment total.
  • Populations of the 5 Shires in rank order are: Macedon Ranges - 41,022 (19.1% of catchment total); Campaspe 37,901 (17.6%); Mount Alexander - 17,576 (8.2%); Central Goldfields - 13,153 (6.1%); and Loddon - 8,444 (3.9%).
  • Macedon Ranges (25.9%) and Greater Bendigo (19.8%) project significant population increases over the next 15 years - with projected growth rates higher than the Victorian average of 12.8%. Campaspe's projected population growth (11.4%) is comparable to the state-wide average. Central Goldfield's population (1.0% growth) will remain virtually static, while Loddon's population is projected to decline by approximately 5%
  • Based on the ABS IRSED index, the six LGA's are characterised by significant variations in levels of socio-economic disadvantage based on indices and comparative rankings for Victoria's 78 LGA's. Central Goldfields (4th) and Mount Alexander (10th) rank in the State's 10 most disadvantaged LGA's. Conversely Macedon Ranges (71st) ranks in the top 7 least disadvantaged LGA's.
Population - settlement, distance and sparsity factors
The map on the following page shows significant towns (population 1,000 plus). Township data outlined in the December 2007 project discussion paper highlights the need for differentiated strategic approaches to develop appropriate Family Services delivery models to accommodate the catchment's highly diverse local settlement patterns, for example:
  • Campaspe (S) - The Shire has a significant provincial centre in Echuca (population approx. 11,000) and a number of significant and relatively dispersed larger towns: Kyabram (5,534); Rochester (2,624); Tongala (1,179); and Rushworth (1,000).
  • Central Goldfields (S) - Maryborough (7,500) is the major population centre with no other towns greater than 1,000 people.
  • Greater Bendigo (C) - The LGA's population is largely based in urban areas in the City of Bendigo. Heathcote (1,555) is the only other significant town.
  • Loddon (S) - There were no towns with populations greater than 1,000 people. There are five widely dispersed towns with populations ranging from 400 to 800 people: Boort (756); Inglewood (695); Wedderburn (656); Pyramid Hill (498); Bridgewater (403).
  • Macedon Ranges (S) - Has multiple population centres - with 8 towns with estimated populations exceeding 1,000 people. The largest towns are Gisborne (5,290), Kyneton (4,120) and Woodend (3,017).
  • Mount Alexander (S) - Castlemaine (8,300) is the largest population centre with Maldon as a significant secondary township (1,230). Four other towns range in population from 170 to 530 people.
graphic
Aboriginal population
North Central Catchment (ABS Census data 2006)
Estimated Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population
LGA
Aboriginal population
Total population
%
Campaspe (S)
658
36,208
1.8
Central Goldfields (S)
111
13,324
0.9
Greater Bendigo (C)
1,021
93,251
1.1
Loddon (S)
81
7,837
1.0
Macedon Ranges (S)
172
38,359
0.4
Mount Alexander (S)
129
17,067
0.8
Total
2,172
206,046
1.1
Almost 2,200 Indigenous persons live in North Central approximately 1.1% of the total catchment population (almost double the Victorian average of 0.6%). The largest numbers of Aboriginal persons live in Greater Bendigo (1,021) while Campaspe Shire has the largest proportion (1.8%). Macedon Ranges (S) (0.4%) is the only LGA in the catchment with Aboriginal population numbers proportionally lower than for Victoria as a whole.
Bendigo and District Aboriginal Cooperative (BDAC) and Njernda Aboriginal Corporation report that their agency client records suggest actual numbers of Aboriginal residents may be significantly higher than Census counts due to systemic under reporting. These agencies project the actual catchment Aboriginal population may exceed Census estimates by 60% or higher.
Child Protection notifications/ re-notifications
Legislation for mandatory reporting of sexual and physical abuse of children was introduced in Victoria in 1993/94. In 2006/07 a total of 38,675 notifications of child abuse and neglect were made to the Victorian Department of Human Services. Of these, 10,537 required further direct investigation, and 6,826 were found to be substantiated. Of these substantiated cases the major categories of abuse across Victoria were:
Category
%
Physical abuse
34.5
Sexual abuse
7.1
Emotional abuse
42.3
Neglect
15.9
Total
100.0


These figures are indicative of the heavy workload involved in managing the state's Child Protection system - while the significant gap between child abuse notifications and substantiations provides compelling evidence of the need to develop effective alternative referral pathways (other than mandatory reporting) to services for individuals and families "at risk". 
The success of recent Victorian Government reforms to develop alternative referral and service pathways for vulnerable individuals and families is highlighted in national child protection data. The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare's latest annual survey report, Child protection Australia 2006-07, shows that in contrast to other jurisdictions, numbers of child protection notifications in Victoria over the eight-year period 1999/00 - 2006/07 have increased by approximately 5%. Increases in notifications in other larger states over the same period have been: NSW (over 500%) with 189,928 notifications in 2006/07; WA (190%); Queensland (almost 50%); and South Australia (21%).  
Based on recent Child Protection Service data, there were an estimated 2,093 notifications in the North Central catchment in 2006 (see following table):
  • Greater Bendigo accounted for 1,034 notifications - almost half the catchment total.
  • Greater Bendigo and Central Goldfields, i.e. the two LGA's currently served by Family Support Innovations Projects recorded 1,233 notifications - approximately 59% of the catchment total.
  • Campaspe had the second highest notifications total - 381 or 18.2% of the catchment figure. The lowest total was Loddon with 118 notifications or 5.6%.
  • The average total notification rate across all 6 LGA's was approximately 40.3 notifications per thousand children/ young persons aged 0-17 years.
  • Notification rates for Central Goldfields (72.1 notifications per 1,000) and Loddon (65.0) significantly exceeded the catchment average. The notification rate for Macedon Ranges (19.6) was less than half the catchment average.  
Child Protection notifications 2006*
North Central Catchment
LGA
Total Notifs
% Catchment
Pop'n 0-   17 years
Notifs per '000
Campaspe (S)
381
18.2
9,382
40.6
Central Goldfields (S) '06
199
9.5
2,762
72.1
Gr. Bendigo (C) '06
1,034
49.4
23,264
44.4
Loddon (S)
118
5.6
1,817
65.0
Macedon Ranges (S)
211
10.1
10,773
19.6
Mount Alexander (S)
150
7.2
3,907
38.4
Totals
2,093
100.0
51,905
40.3
* Note: Data derived from Child Protection Service annual returns as follows: 2006 (Calendar Year) - Central Goldfields (S), Greater Bendigo (C) and 2005/06 (Financial Year - Campaspe (S), Loddon (S), Macedon Ranges (S), Mount Alexander (S)  
Notifications and re-notifications
The following table shows patterns of first-time notifications and re-notifications based on 2006 data. Re- notification rates across the catchment are comparatively high, i.e. 66% or almost two thirds of total notifications. In 2006, 720 out of a total 1,373 notifications were for children previously notified to DHS. The highest re- notification rates were recorded for Central Goldfields (70.4%) - and the lowest for Mount Alexander (59.3%).
Child Protection notifications/ re-notifications 2006
North Central Catchment
LGA
1stnotifs
Re- notifs
Total
Re- notifs %
Campaspe (S)
148
233
381
61.2
Central Goldfields (S) '06
59
140
199
70.4
Gr. Bendigo (C) '06
335
699
1,034
67.6
Loddon (S)
42
76
118
64.4
Macedon Ranges (S)
75
136
211
64.5
Mount Alexander (S)
61
89
150
59.3
Totals
720
1,373
2,093
65.6
The major categories of abuse listed in catchment notifications over this period were: neglect (34.1%); emotional (29.4%); physical (24.1%); and sexual (12.4%) abuse. 
Recent data shows a catchment trend of increasing demand for child protection services in 2007. 
Child Protection Services' Bendigo sub-regional office (which serves the six LGA's across the catchment) has received 2,038 notifications in the first 10 months of the current calendar year - compared to an estimated 2,096 notifications annually for 2006. The following table provides details of actions taken by DHS Child Protection Services following initial screening in the first ten months of 2007. 
Child Protection notifications/ investigations January - October 2007
Bendigo Sub-Regional Office
Action
Catchment
%
Total notifications recorded
2,038
100.0
No further action (including referrals to other services/ Family Services providers)
1,560
76.5
Investigations
478
23.5
Aboriginal children and families
While updated catchment figures are not currently available, national and state- wide trends highlight that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children are more likely to be the subject of child protection notifications and substantiations than other children.
In Victoria Indigenous children are 10 times more likely than other children to be the subject of child protection substantiations. In 2005/06, Indigenous children accounted for 834 (11.4%) of 7,287 child protection substantiations for all Victorian children aged 0-16 years. The rate of substantiations in 2005/06 for Indigenous children was 67.7 per thousand - compared to 6.0 per thousand for non-Indigenous children.
The report bringing them home (National inquiry into the separation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children from their families) (2007) noted that some of the underlying causes of the overrepresentation of Indigenous children in State/ Territory child welfare and child protection systems included:
  • The legacy of past policies of the forced removal of Aboriginal children from their families;
  • Intergenerational effects of previous separations from family and culture;
  • Poor socioeconomic status - including low income and barriers to employment;
  • Cultural differences in child rearing practices.